There will be blood

The pinch at the pump is starting to turn into a full blown roundhouse to the gut. Just the other day, for our Toyota RAV4, we paid nearly $50 for a full tank. There is no sign that it is getting any better. To think, about ten years ago, while traveling in New Jersey, I remember filling up at a pump for $.65/gal, and even that seemed excessively cheap as prices here were already in the low $2.00 range. The average price for gas in Cali, as of this morning: $3.83. Times done changed.

In an article from the New York Times entitled, “The Big Thirst”, writer Jad Mouawad elaborates..

Today’s tensions are only likely to get worse in coming years. Consider a few numbers: The planet’s population is expected to grow by 50 percent to nine billion by sometime in the middle of the century. The number of cars and trucks is projected to double in 30 years— to more than two billion — as developing nations rapidly modernize. And twice as many passenger jetliners, more than 36,000, will in all likelihood be crisscrossing the skies in 20 years.

All of that will require a lot more oil — enough that global oil consumption will jump by some 35 percent by the year 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, a leading global energy forecaster for the United States and other developed nations. For producers it will mean somehow finding and pumping an additional 11 billion barrels of oil every year.

And that’s only 22 years away, a heartbeat for the petroleum industry, where the pace of finding and tapping new supplies is measured in decades.

The pursuit of oil will be just part of the energy challenge. The world’s total energy demand — including oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear power, as well as renewable energy sources like wind, solar and hydro power — is set to rise by 65 percent over the next two decades, according to the I.E.A.

But petroleum, the dominant fuel of the 20th century, will remain the top energy source. It accounts for more than a third of the world’s total energy needs, ahead of coal and natural gas. Refined into gasoline, kerosene or diesel fuel, oil has no viable substitute as a transportation fuel, and that is not likely to change much in the next 30 years.

The problem is that no one can say for sure where all this oil is going to come from.


One Response to “There will be blood”

  1. apophaticattic Says:

    If you haven’t already, you might enjoy the Transition Handbook, and you will probably enjoy watching “The Most Important Video You’ll Ever See” on Youtube – an 8 part lecture by Dr. Albert A. Bartlett on the impossibility of continuous exponential growth in population and consumption.

    The future prediction in this article are worthless if, as it certainly seems, we have hit Peak Oil production (peak oil discovery happened in the 70s).

    I like your blog.

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